Bitcoin: Future?

First: A few fundamentals you should know

• Bitcoin is currently (spring 2025) very high compared to its historical trend line.

• Most of the retail public is back in, meaning weak hands, emotional money.

• Institutional players (BlackRock, Fidelity, etc.) are also in, but they have exit plans you won’t know about until after they act.

• Bitcoin’s historical boom-bust cycles show a collapse roughly every 4 years tied to its halving cycle.

Bitcoin “halving” reduces miner rewards about every 4 years, creating a supply squeeze, usually leading to a hype-driven peak within 12–18 months, then a crash.

The last halving was April 2024.

Thus, peak hype is building right now in 2025, just like it did in late 2017 and late 2021.

(And both were followed by devastating crashes.)

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My Statistical Guess (based on past patterns and current dynamics):

Most probable crash window:

Late 2025 to early 2026. Peaking maybe around November–December 2025, then unraveling into a long, ugly bear market through 2026–2027.

Specifically:

• First cracks: September–October 2025 (some early big players start selling into strength)

• Main crash trigger: November–December 2025 (some sudden catalyst — regulation, ETF sell-off, liquidity crisis, or a stock market contagion)

• Major plummet: Bitcoin could lose 70–85% from its peak — just like it has done after every previous mania.

If that pattern holds, the crash will be devastating around mid-to-late 2026, when public interest vanishes and the news headlines turn hostile.

Warning Signs to Watch:

These will usually appear months before the collapse but are easy to miss:

• Bitcoin hitting new all-time highs with weak volume (fewer and fewer new buyers)

• Massive insider selling while public sentiment stays euphoric

• New “decentralized finance” or meme coin scams exploding (late-stage bubble)

• Mainstream media running feel-good Bitcoin stories (Time, Forbes, etc.) near the top (classic)

• Politicians and governments talking about CBDCs (Central Bank Digital Currencies) while proposing Bitcoin taxes or regulations.

• Major ETFs seeing net outflows instead of inflows (smart money quietly leaving)

If you see three or more of these at once, you’re very close to the peak.

Final Thought:

Statistically, Bitcoin is a hyper-volatile speculative asset tied mostly to narrative and liquidity — not fundamentals.

As soon as:

• liquidity dries up (higher interest rates, recession),

• or the narrative cracks (regulation, major theft, big ETF collapse),

Bitcoin will plummet viciously.

Cycles always rhyme.

Not because Bitcoin is bad, but because human psychology is predictably greedy and fearful.